As does ESPN with their stupid Insider columns that you have to pay for which are nothing more than Dicky V rambling on...I am going to break down the brackets with a special Royal D-Bags Sports Blog Insider addition.
Brackets, toughest to easiest:
I think the East is the toughest, and the toughest road for UNC to win. A potiential second round meeting with Indiana, whom at one time we were stating would get as high as a 2 seed, is a tough battle for the Heels. If Arkansas manages to upset Indiana, they could also be a sleeper to give UNC a tough matchup in the 2nd round. Notre Dame at a 5 seed is scary and even scarier in my mind is Washington State at a 4 with the senior leader ship of guards Derrick Low and Kyle Weaver, this was one of my top 5 teams to watch out for this year and they may still make a mess yet in this tourney. Louisville the 3 seed, this was a team that was being talked about as a one seed just a few weeks ago, I like there chances a lot to advance to the elite 8 over Tennessee. And then of course Tennessee, I think they are beatable and might be an easier match up in the regional for UNC than some of UNC's earlier games however they were at a time number 1 with a big win over Memphis which you have to put weight in Bruce Pearl's team that they can get the job done in big games.
The South bracket is the next toughest for me. Memphis is a team to be wrecken with, with Roberts and Rose but the potential regional matchup with Texas' DJ Agoustine could end the Tigers dreams of cutting down the nets when it's all said and done. The team that could be the sleeper here is Pittsburgh, yet another team I stated earlier in the year to watch out for, with the team healthy and winning an impressive BE tourney over G-town can they be stopped right now? The only thing that might is the fact that 4 games in 4 days, ala Syracuse in '06, could spell trouble, if they get out of 1st round which they will and should, they could coast all the way to the Final Four. Texas is going to be my favorite out of this bracket because of DJ Agoustine, there are certain guys that you can ride the shoulders of in tournaments that can get you to the promise land and I think Agoustine is one of them...the factor here that is going against them is, and always seems to be, the poor coaching performances by Rick Barnes. We see it time and time again with Texas teams that come tourney time bow out early and I believe most of this is a result of Barnes poor coaching.
The next toughest, or second easiest, is the Kansas / Mid-West Bracket. This was a toss up for me with the West bracket but I give the edge to Kansas as having a slightly tougher road based on a few things, Wisconson, a team under everyone's radar, being a 3 seed when I thought they should have been a 2 seed in the west over Duke and a Final Four experienced Georgetown team. The trio of Butch, Landry and Hughes has some experience and I believe could sneak through this tournament like they did through most of the season. They come from a poor Big 10 this year but I think they are playing well at the right time. Georgetown and Roy Hibbert is a team that I would not want to play, this team got it done last year when I thought they couldn't and I am not going to pick against them this year with a more experienced team. USC and OJ Mayo vs. Kansas St. and Michael Beasley is the 1st round match up that everyone should be glued to. These frosh are execellent in the big game and is there a better player all around than Michael Beasley in division 1? I have come to the conclusion that there is not!!! USC may squeak by here and if they do they pose problems. Davidson the 10th seed could be the sleeper, what's impressive here is they have 6 losses 3 of them to UNC, Duke, and UCLA and they went undefeated in conference play...watch out Gonzaga and watch out Georgetown you have a fiesty team that can get to the sweet 16 as as sleeper. Also Clemson and Vandy are teams to watch out for espically Clemson who is hitting on all cylinders at the right time.
Finally the easiest bracket for me to pick is the West and I soley believe it is because UCLA has a path to the Final Four that is paved nicely like UNC, who doesn't have to leave close to home until the Final Four, UCLA has somewhat of an easier task playing close to home. If Love and Mbah a Moute, rest up and recover a bit from there injuries they suffered on there way to winning the Pac 10 tourney I think I could easily pick them to win the whole thing as much as I have liked UNC's chances all year. Some road blocks for them could be Xavier, Uconn, and Duke. Xavier impressed me this year, aside from there lost to St. Joes in the A-10 tourney, with a stellar 27-6 record. Uconn always is trouble and the weight of there performance is on the shoulders of Thabeet, if he can carry this team they can spell trouble in this bracket. Duke, although I thought they should be a 3 seed with their loss to Clemson over the weekend, still has to be considered a favorite to get into the regional final vs. UCLA. What is always key for Duke these days is whether or not they are shooting well from beyond the arc. The formula for me usually doesn't mean a championship but Duke could go far if they shoot well in this tournament. The potential sleeper out of this bracket is Drake at a 5 seed. The committee rewarded them well as they had 4 losses on the year but beat tourney teams like San Diego, Cornell, and Butler, on the road, to an impressive mid-major season...they could make a mess of things in the West for sure!
Teams that made it / did not make it:
I usually have a ton of complaints in this category but I have to say I think for the most part the committee got it right this year. You can make a strong case that Virginia Tech should have gotten in. If they took Oregon who 18-13 regular season with an RPI 58 and 168th in schedule strength you could easily make a case that Va Tech at 19-13 with an RPI of 52 who played well down the stretch could have gotten in over Oregon but the committee rewarded the Pac 10 for having a better overall conference RPI. Also not to have sour grapes but Syracuse had good numbers to argue against Oregon getting in at 19-13 an RPI of 55 and the 8th toughest schedule in the country, had they won against Villanova I think that would have punched their ticket as this was evident with Nova getting the 12th seed when they could have easily been left out. I say it time and time again and its true each year, the committee puts a lot of stock in how many teams come from a conference and they reward those conferences that have high RPIs. The formula is really 50 to 60 percent of the teams from the large conferences will get in when that conference has a good rating with the largest conference like BE only ever getting 50 percent because the committee puts full stock in not over indulging in taking too many teams from a conference, same could be said about Arizona state which everyone tought would get in and did not, had they that would have been 7 teams out of 10 and there is no way the committee would do this unless all 7 teams were in the top 25 and there was no way they could be left out.
In all I feel this is going to be a very competative field with upsets as usual and no clear cut winner again for me this year. I am leaning towards UNC but could see UCLA or Kansas cutting them down when its all said and done.
Signed,
Royal D-Bags Insider Columnist
Otto
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3 comments:
The East is a monster....when Indiana is your eight seed you have one loaded region. Butler has a chance at sneaking in the Sweet 16. UNC will have a tougher time with Notre Dame than people think. Ultimately they go up against Louisville in the final 8 and prevail.
The South has a Memphis team who will lose a close game when they can't hit their free throws. This opens the door for Texas and I always like team that have outside-inside balance. Stanford is too slow and could get knocked off in round 2 by Marquette (or maybe Kentucky perhaps ;)
Kansas looks pretty dominant in the Midwest. Crazy upset pick...I'm going with Siena over Vandy. Both teams like to run up and down the court but Vandy is not a good road team at all. USC gets to the sweet 16 (again, good outside-inside combo) but Georgetown takes them out.
UCLA has an easy road to the Final 4. Duke doesn't have the inside personnel, Xavier will squeak by a hot Georgia team to lose to Purdue, and Drake will recreate the '71 Final Four and give the Bruins their toughest test before the Bruins claim their 12th NCAA title.
Subject to change within the next 39 hours.
Nice work gentlemen - I will try to provide my input later on tonight . . .
RomoCop
Bald,
Excellent call on Siena over Vandy. I had probably the biggest upset picked when I put Davidson past G-Town. I look like a genius right now with that pick.
Big disappointments after the 1st two rounds:
USC, Oregon, two teams that should have won there openers but fell short, I was un-impressed
The entire Big East - When Villanova and WV are your only loan standing teams to make the sweet 16 I think it calls for a down year. At least Syracuse is still playing in the NIT...
Drake - All the hype, should ah, could ah, would ah...with this team, what an ending by WKY
Vandy - I had this team sneaking into the sweet 16 because although not great on the road they did impress me with there style of play, big let down.
Now as we are down to the sweet 16 it is evident to me that both UNC and Kansas are playing on all cylinders. I picked Memphis to play in the championship game and this scares me because they are terrible at the free throw line and you have shoot well from the charity strip in the tourney. UCLA looks a little out of rhythm and they are going to have a tough test against WVU or Xavier if they meet up in the elite 8. And UNC is making what we all thought was a tough bracket look easy although I still believe they are going to have there hands full with Wash St and or L-ville/Tenn match up in the regional. We shall see...
Otto
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